Week starting 15.12.2008
"Reflecting an imbalance similar to that observed in Spain, new home completions in Ireland have shrunk to an estimated 42,000 in 2008 from 78,000 in 2007. Looking ahead, we expect completions to plummet to 25,000 in 2009." Standard & Poor's, debt rating agency, The Irish Times, 19.12.2008
"There continues to be a widening rift in Irish banking with some lenders continuing to compete for mortgage business while others continue to sit on the sidelines." Frank Conway, Director of the Irish Mortgage Corporation, Irish Independent, 19.12.2008
"As we have witnessed in America during the 1980s, and as we are beginning to see in Ireland, overdevelopment can have a strongly adverse impact on the finances of developers, investors and lenders - not to mention national economies." Dr John McCartney, economist, former head of research with Lisney, The Irish Times, 18.12.2008
"Major reforms are on the way. We can look forward to change from what can be an exasperating rigmarole - for buyers and sellers taking up to seven weeks in and out of solicitors' offices just to buy an ordinary house or apartment - to possibly little more than five days." Pat Igoe - solicitor, The Irish Times, 18.12.2008
"That approach to housing was developer-driven and greed-based. It was fuelled, not by the housing needs of the people, but by the profit motive of developers and the avarice of banks and other lending institutions." Sinn Fein Dáil leader Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin, The Irish Times, 18.12.2008
Friday, December 19, 2008
Friday, December 12, 2008
Quotes of the Week
Week starting 8.12.2008
"Clearly, the fear of job loss is deterring people from making major long-term spending commitments such as house purchase." Austin Hughes, Economist, KBC Bank, Irish Independent, 10.12.2008
"The number of properties going off the market, either through sales or withdrawals, has been higher than the numbers coming onto the market every single month this year." Marian Finnegan, Chief Economist, Sherry FitzGerald, Sunday Business Post, 07.12.2008
"Buyers have disappeared and will only be tempted back when they see value to be had. Overall, this year investment property has probably dropped in value by over 30 per cent and has further to fall." John Moran, incoming managing director of Jones Lang LaSalle Ireland, Sunday Business Post, 07.12.2008
"The auction market as a method of sale has declined rapidly since its peak in 2006... This was to be expected because the changed market environment meant that best advice from auctioneers for the bulk of sales, especially this year, was the private treaty method." Paul Murgatroyd, Economist, Douglas Newman Good, Sunday Business Post, 07.12.2008
"Clearly, the fear of job loss is deterring people from making major long-term spending commitments such as house purchase." Austin Hughes, Economist, KBC Bank, Irish Independent, 10.12.2008
"The number of properties going off the market, either through sales or withdrawals, has been higher than the numbers coming onto the market every single month this year." Marian Finnegan, Chief Economist, Sherry FitzGerald, Sunday Business Post, 07.12.2008
"Buyers have disappeared and will only be tempted back when they see value to be had. Overall, this year investment property has probably dropped in value by over 30 per cent and has further to fall." John Moran, incoming managing director of Jones Lang LaSalle Ireland, Sunday Business Post, 07.12.2008
"The auction market as a method of sale has declined rapidly since its peak in 2006... This was to be expected because the changed market environment meant that best advice from auctioneers for the bulk of sales, especially this year, was the private treaty method." Paul Murgatroyd, Economist, Douglas Newman Good, Sunday Business Post, 07.12.2008
Friday, December 5, 2008
Quotes of the Week
Week starting 01.12.2008
"Many potential buyers are trying to do the near impossible and predict the bottom of the market but, if a buyer purchases now, I would argue that they will have experienced the majority of the anticipated total price fall." Keith Lowe, Chief Executive, Douglas Newman Good, The Irish Times, 04.12.2008
"Spectacular. Depressing. Encouraging. It is encouraging because I believe we have finally reached the agonising bottom in terms of price. We are also facing the prospect of a lengthy period of very, very low interest rates." Ronan O'Driscoll, Director of New Homes at Savills, The Irish Times, 04.12.2008
"The combination of this rate cut and the recent reductions in the price of residential property, of up to 30%, bodes well for the re-alignment and reactivation of the residential market in the months ahead." Marian Finnegan, Chief Economist, Sherry FitzGerald Group, 04.12.2008
"What next year brings is new territory. If you are unfortunate to be made redundant it is difficult to envision where you can go. There is no development taking place, no land sales and the housing market has slowed down to a standstill." Alan Cooke, IAVI, The Irish Times, 05.12.2008
"The worst period of this recession will be between June 2008 and June 2009. I am cautiously optimistic there will be good omens in terms of global liquidity pre-Easter 2009." Mark FitzGerald, Chief Executive, Sherry FitzGerald, The Irish Times, 03.12.2008
"I think in early 2010 we should be able to see some light at the end of the tunnel!" Ann Hargaden, Director of Investment, Lisney, The Irish Times, 03.12.2008
"Property must now pay for itself from day one with returns based on assumptions on rental growth now heavily discounted. It's back to basics." Sean O'Neill, Head of Investments at DTZ Sherry FitzGerald, The Irish Times, 03.12.2008
"There is an old property cliché which says that "land values go up like a rocket and fall like a stone" and this seems to have been bourne out in Ireland over recent years." Bill Nowlan, Chartered Surveyor & Town Planner, The Irish Times, 03.12.2008
"There are builders in negative equity on sites. They borrowed more than they can dream of earning back on sites. Some are paying interest on the sites and some simply are not." Anonymous agent, The Irish Times, 03.12.2008
"The planning system was very inefficient. If you had paid, say, a million pounds for a site, there was a real temptation to take a short cut if there was resistance." Paddy Kelly, Developer, The Irish Times, 02.12.2008
"The knowledge to solve this problem does not reside in Tullamore, Donegal or Castleknock; it's probably not at the Cabinet table or even in the Dáil. It needs business people with business acumen, people who started with zero and know how to maintain a business." Sean Dunne, Developer, The Irish Times, 01.12.2008
"Many potential buyers are trying to do the near impossible and predict the bottom of the market but, if a buyer purchases now, I would argue that they will have experienced the majority of the anticipated total price fall." Keith Lowe, Chief Executive, Douglas Newman Good, The Irish Times, 04.12.2008
"Spectacular. Depressing. Encouraging. It is encouraging because I believe we have finally reached the agonising bottom in terms of price. We are also facing the prospect of a lengthy period of very, very low interest rates." Ronan O'Driscoll, Director of New Homes at Savills, The Irish Times, 04.12.2008
"The combination of this rate cut and the recent reductions in the price of residential property, of up to 30%, bodes well for the re-alignment and reactivation of the residential market in the months ahead." Marian Finnegan, Chief Economist, Sherry FitzGerald Group, 04.12.2008
"What next year brings is new territory. If you are unfortunate to be made redundant it is difficult to envision where you can go. There is no development taking place, no land sales and the housing market has slowed down to a standstill." Alan Cooke, IAVI, The Irish Times, 05.12.2008
"The worst period of this recession will be between June 2008 and June 2009. I am cautiously optimistic there will be good omens in terms of global liquidity pre-Easter 2009." Mark FitzGerald, Chief Executive, Sherry FitzGerald, The Irish Times, 03.12.2008
"I think in early 2010 we should be able to see some light at the end of the tunnel!" Ann Hargaden, Director of Investment, Lisney, The Irish Times, 03.12.2008
"Property must now pay for itself from day one with returns based on assumptions on rental growth now heavily discounted. It's back to basics." Sean O'Neill, Head of Investments at DTZ Sherry FitzGerald, The Irish Times, 03.12.2008
"There is an old property cliché which says that "land values go up like a rocket and fall like a stone" and this seems to have been bourne out in Ireland over recent years." Bill Nowlan, Chartered Surveyor & Town Planner, The Irish Times, 03.12.2008
"There are builders in negative equity on sites. They borrowed more than they can dream of earning back on sites. Some are paying interest on the sites and some simply are not." Anonymous agent, The Irish Times, 03.12.2008
"The planning system was very inefficient. If you had paid, say, a million pounds for a site, there was a real temptation to take a short cut if there was resistance." Paddy Kelly, Developer, The Irish Times, 02.12.2008
"The knowledge to solve this problem does not reside in Tullamore, Donegal or Castleknock; it's probably not at the Cabinet table or even in the Dáil. It needs business people with business acumen, people who started with zero and know how to maintain a business." Sean Dunne, Developer, The Irish Times, 01.12.2008
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Jones Lang LaSalle launch a new look website
Jones Lang LaSalle has a brand new look to their website - what might be called by the cognoscenti, Web 2.0 in style. Having recently launched their jlltv.ie they are certainly one of the busiest property companies in Ireland in terms of marketing and profile raising. The animation sequence at the start, featuring bird's eye views of famous cityscapes, does not include Dublin - reflecting the fact that this is a localised version of the worldwide .com site.
It certainly looks fresh and up to date, but I'd wonder is it really the kind of style that a commercial property company needs for selling themselves.
Friday, November 28, 2008
Guess the name and win of magnum of champagne for your office
The Property Week Limited started trading in Ireland in 2003. We called ourselves The Property Week because we started life as a newsletter summarising the week's residential property news and listings in a handy format for property professionals to keep up with what was happening in the market at a glance.
We were hardly even aware of there being a very important magazine of the same name in the UK, and because we were only involved with residential property it wouldn't have seemed a problem anyway. However, now that we have started monitoring the commercial property market, we do find the name becoming a problem.
After much deliberation we've finally chosen a new name and will be launching it in the new year. To celebrate we are running a little competition: the first person to guess the name correctly (entries via email to paul@propertyweek.ie) will receive a magnum of champagne & giant box of chocolates delivered to their office. (Our decision will be final, terms and condition apply and so on.) As we get closer to Christmas if we still haven't had a winner we'll start dropping big hints on the site.
Quotes of the Week
Week starting 24.11.2008
"If one strips out all property lending, and deducts lending between financial entities too, credit growth to the rest of the economy is shrinking." Scott Rankin, analyst at Davy Stockbrokers, Irish Independent, 27.11.2008
"Given the extent of the adjustment in the property market and the pain being taken this year, coupled with decisive action by central banks to free up the liquidity situation, we expect the market to bottom out by 2009 and for activity levels to pick -up throughout next year, albeit at considerably lower values and volumes." Joan Henry, Head of Research at Savills, 26.11.2008
"Currently brokers are involved in the valuation process, we generally collect the valuation fee and order the valuation, we then receive the report from the valuer and then send it on to the bank. I would feel that this is wrong, mortgage brokers should actually not be part of the process at all." Karl Deeter, Irish Mortgage Brokers, 24.11.2008
"No-one really knows when the bottom is until after it's passed." Paul Murgatroyd, Economist, Douglas Newman Good, on just how far prices will fall next year, Sunday Tribune, 23.11.2008
"This year the Irish economy, the Irish property market and the Irish investor have been badly bruised. Looking forward to 2009, challenges undoubtedly remain, but if investors and the public can gain assurance from an alleviation in the level of market volatility, and the decisive action being taken by global central banks to safeguard the long-run health of economies, then the light cannot but be turned on at the end of the tunnel." Mary-Kate McGarry, Economist in the research unit at Savills, Sunday Business Post, 23.11.2008
"Fianna Fáil has governed deliberately in the interests of their friends, particularly property speculators, rather than in the best interests of the Irish people. The result was an unsustainable property bubble, the victims of which are the many thousands of young couples who are now paying huge mortgages on overpriced homes, living with the anxiety of failing jobs and negative equity." Fine Gael leader, Enda Kenny TD, Fine Gael's 2008 National Conference, 22.11.2008
"Fortunately, I operate on my own. So I have not had to lay off staff. There are still people out there who will buy houses, but the vendor has to be realistic." Maura Donohoe, estate agent in Newbridge, Irish Independent, 22.11.2008
"If one strips out all property lending, and deducts lending between financial entities too, credit growth to the rest of the economy is shrinking." Scott Rankin, analyst at Davy Stockbrokers, Irish Independent, 27.11.2008
"Given the extent of the adjustment in the property market and the pain being taken this year, coupled with decisive action by central banks to free up the liquidity situation, we expect the market to bottom out by 2009 and for activity levels to pick -up throughout next year, albeit at considerably lower values and volumes." Joan Henry, Head of Research at Savills, 26.11.2008
"Currently brokers are involved in the valuation process, we generally collect the valuation fee and order the valuation, we then receive the report from the valuer and then send it on to the bank. I would feel that this is wrong, mortgage brokers should actually not be part of the process at all." Karl Deeter, Irish Mortgage Brokers, 24.11.2008
"No-one really knows when the bottom is until after it's passed." Paul Murgatroyd, Economist, Douglas Newman Good, on just how far prices will fall next year, Sunday Tribune, 23.11.2008
"This year the Irish economy, the Irish property market and the Irish investor have been badly bruised. Looking forward to 2009, challenges undoubtedly remain, but if investors and the public can gain assurance from an alleviation in the level of market volatility, and the decisive action being taken by global central banks to safeguard the long-run health of economies, then the light cannot but be turned on at the end of the tunnel." Mary-Kate McGarry, Economist in the research unit at Savills, Sunday Business Post, 23.11.2008
"Fianna Fáil has governed deliberately in the interests of their friends, particularly property speculators, rather than in the best interests of the Irish people. The result was an unsustainable property bubble, the victims of which are the many thousands of young couples who are now paying huge mortgages on overpriced homes, living with the anxiety of failing jobs and negative equity." Fine Gael leader, Enda Kenny TD, Fine Gael's 2008 National Conference, 22.11.2008
"Fortunately, I operate on my own. So I have not had to lay off staff. There are still people out there who will buy houses, but the vendor has to be realistic." Maura Donohoe, estate agent in Newbridge, Irish Independent, 22.11.2008
Friday, November 21, 2008
Quotes of the Week
Week starting 17.11.2008
"There are people (investors) in the dressing room limbering up. While it will be difficult for the remainder of the year and into January we may see some transactions again in February or March." John Moran, incoming Managing Director of Jones Lang LaSalle, Irish Independent, 20.11.2008
"This is something which is likely to spread to other lenders and will have a massive impact on the mortgage market." Karl Deeter of Irish Mortgage Brokers, on KBC Homeloans saying it would now only provide mortgages for 80pc of the value of homes, Irish Independent, 19.11.2008
"If our housing boom-and-bust cycle is comparable to our European neighbours, then we can expect it to take a minimum of 3-5 years for the market to recover." Dr. Stephen Kinsella, University of Limerick, Daft Rental Report Q3 2008, 18.11.2008
"It is important to keep things in perspective. The 'irrational exuberance' of the eighteen months before the summer of 2007 was a serious aberration in terms of the longer term development of a sustainable housing market. The market is currently undergoing a significant correction." Northern Ireland Housing Executive’s Head of Research, Joe Frey, 18.11.2008
"The amount of effort and skill it takes to sell a property now makes more demand on the agent, so fees will creep up somewhat. But they will still have to be manageable for the seller to afford." Fintan McNamara, IPAV, Sunday Business Post, 16.11.2008
"People have to see that developers are down to their bottom line now....If the banks pass on this half per cent cut in interest rates, things might change, but a lot of developers are just about keeping their heads above water now." Brian Byrne, of Wexford firm Cleary Doyle, Sunday Business Post, 16.11.2008
"Given the extremely sharp contraction in residential construction, these figures show the existing stock of unsold houses could clear quickly, once impasses in mortgage lending are addressed and confidence among prospective house buyers returns." Martin Whelan, communications director of CIF, on the Homebond figures for unsold new homes, Sunday Business Post, 16.11.2008
"There are people (investors) in the dressing room limbering up. While it will be difficult for the remainder of the year and into January we may see some transactions again in February or March." John Moran, incoming Managing Director of Jones Lang LaSalle, Irish Independent, 20.11.2008
"This is something which is likely to spread to other lenders and will have a massive impact on the mortgage market." Karl Deeter of Irish Mortgage Brokers, on KBC Homeloans saying it would now only provide mortgages for 80pc of the value of homes, Irish Independent, 19.11.2008
"If our housing boom-and-bust cycle is comparable to our European neighbours, then we can expect it to take a minimum of 3-5 years for the market to recover." Dr. Stephen Kinsella, University of Limerick, Daft Rental Report Q3 2008, 18.11.2008
"It is important to keep things in perspective. The 'irrational exuberance' of the eighteen months before the summer of 2007 was a serious aberration in terms of the longer term development of a sustainable housing market. The market is currently undergoing a significant correction." Northern Ireland Housing Executive’s Head of Research, Joe Frey, 18.11.2008
"The amount of effort and skill it takes to sell a property now makes more demand on the agent, so fees will creep up somewhat. But they will still have to be manageable for the seller to afford." Fintan McNamara, IPAV, Sunday Business Post, 16.11.2008
"People have to see that developers are down to their bottom line now....If the banks pass on this half per cent cut in interest rates, things might change, but a lot of developers are just about keeping their heads above water now." Brian Byrne, of Wexford firm Cleary Doyle, Sunday Business Post, 16.11.2008
"Given the extremely sharp contraction in residential construction, these figures show the existing stock of unsold houses could clear quickly, once impasses in mortgage lending are addressed and confidence among prospective house buyers returns." Martin Whelan, communications director of CIF, on the Homebond figures for unsold new homes, Sunday Business Post, 16.11.2008
Friday, November 14, 2008
Quotes of the Week
Week starting 10.11.2008
"Our own surveys show that office rents are the only prime property sector to show a fall and that was down by only 4pc in the last quarter." Patrick Koucheravy, economist at CBRE, Irish Independent, 12.11.2008
"Commercial activity is now in the eye of the storm. In fact, the housing index bounced a bit but, essentially, still continues to trend sideways, indicating very low levels of activity." Ulster Bank economist Pat McArdle on its Construction PMI index, Irish Independent, 10.11.2008
"In more recent times it's been very hard to assess the market because nothing is selling. Although we still have a very strong residential sales department we decided we needed to plan for the future and that's how our new lettings service came about." Peter Kenny, Associate Director and head of city residential in Colliers Jackson-Stops, Sunday Tribune, 09.11.2008
"The Permanent TSB statistics, for instance, show that sales have dropped by around 9% this year. We've dropped prices by 9% in the past month to get deals done." Declan Cassidy, Managing Director of Gunne Residential, Sunday Tribune, 09.11.2008
"In the case of Irish investors, they probably decided to buy something nice a few years ago but it has now gone underwater and the banks want their money back. This is where we see the big pick-up in the market coming from." John Moran, Director of Capital Markets in Ireland for Jones Lang LaSalle, Sunday Business Post, 09.11.2008
"Our own surveys show that office rents are the only prime property sector to show a fall and that was down by only 4pc in the last quarter." Patrick Koucheravy, economist at CBRE, Irish Independent, 12.11.2008
"Commercial activity is now in the eye of the storm. In fact, the housing index bounced a bit but, essentially, still continues to trend sideways, indicating very low levels of activity." Ulster Bank economist Pat McArdle on its Construction PMI index, Irish Independent, 10.11.2008
"In more recent times it's been very hard to assess the market because nothing is selling. Although we still have a very strong residential sales department we decided we needed to plan for the future and that's how our new lettings service came about." Peter Kenny, Associate Director and head of city residential in Colliers Jackson-Stops, Sunday Tribune, 09.11.2008
"The Permanent TSB statistics, for instance, show that sales have dropped by around 9% this year. We've dropped prices by 9% in the past month to get deals done." Declan Cassidy, Managing Director of Gunne Residential, Sunday Tribune, 09.11.2008
"In the case of Irish investors, they probably decided to buy something nice a few years ago but it has now gone underwater and the banks want their money back. This is where we see the big pick-up in the market coming from." John Moran, Director of Capital Markets in Ireland for Jones Lang LaSalle, Sunday Business Post, 09.11.2008
Friday, November 7, 2008
Quotes of the Week
Week starting 03.11.2008
Chartered Land is "committed to delivering this scheme which will create a vibrant new urban quarter on O'Connell Street and reinstate it as the city's premier thoroughfare". Dominic Deeny, chief executive of Chartered Land, The Irish Times, 05.11.2008
"With regards to rental values, we've seen only a marginal decline in office rents. They have been marginal because the risk of oversupply has been muted by a number of office developments being put on hold and also by an intensification of competition for city centre office space. Although Dublin vacancy has gone up overall, in the city centre the vacancy rate has fallen to nine per cent. Over 80pc of outstanding requirements for office accommodation are located in the city centre districts." Patrick Koucheravy, CB Richard Ellis, Irish Independent , 05.11.2008
“The members also voted to reduce the size of the Council from twenty eight to twelve members. This should benefit policy formation and help strengthen IAVI’s leadership position in the property industry. The benefits I believe with a smaller, tighter organisation are greater flexibility and a greater ability to react in terms of creating initiatives for the sector.” Derry Gray from BDO Simpson Xavier regarding IAVI restructuring, 05.11.2008
"I reckon the majority of first-time buyers who bought into the market over the last three years are in negative equity." Jim Power, Chief Economist with Friends First, Irish Independent, 03.11.2008
"We have been here before, and as sure as night follows day, we will be here again. The difference this time around is that the credit crunch has exacerbated the speed and depth of decline, and transactional activity cannot improve until such time as liquidity improves - something that is out of our hands and a problem to which there is no quick-fix solution." Marie Hunt, Director of Research at CBRE, Sunday Business Post, 02.11.2008
"We’ve had very few actual redundancies - what we have done is moved people from new homes into the valuation areas. There’s no doubt we’ve moved people around. But in terms of numbers, where we’ve been forced to let people go, there’s been very few." Angus Potterton, Managing Director of Savills, Sunday Business Post, 02.11.2008
"It has to be encouraging. But the issue for the housing market is supply. There is too much supply." Frank O'Dwyer, Irish Association of Investment Managers on the prospects for big mortgage rate cuts, Sunday Tribune, 02.11.2008
"Mortgage finance has really tightened for investors. Banks are more willing to lend to first-time buyers, up to 92pc of the price. But they are more strict about income and the type of income involved -- whether it includes things like bonuses and commissions." Geoff Tucker, Economist at Hooke & MacDonald, Irish Independent, 01.11.2008
Chartered Land is "committed to delivering this scheme which will create a vibrant new urban quarter on O'Connell Street and reinstate it as the city's premier thoroughfare". Dominic Deeny, chief executive of Chartered Land, The Irish Times, 05.11.2008
"With regards to rental values, we've seen only a marginal decline in office rents. They have been marginal because the risk of oversupply has been muted by a number of office developments being put on hold and also by an intensification of competition for city centre office space. Although Dublin vacancy has gone up overall, in the city centre the vacancy rate has fallen to nine per cent. Over 80pc of outstanding requirements for office accommodation are located in the city centre districts." Patrick Koucheravy, CB Richard Ellis, Irish Independent , 05.11.2008
“The members also voted to reduce the size of the Council from twenty eight to twelve members. This should benefit policy formation and help strengthen IAVI’s leadership position in the property industry. The benefits I believe with a smaller, tighter organisation are greater flexibility and a greater ability to react in terms of creating initiatives for the sector.” Derry Gray from BDO Simpson Xavier regarding IAVI restructuring, 05.11.2008
"I reckon the majority of first-time buyers who bought into the market over the last three years are in negative equity." Jim Power, Chief Economist with Friends First, Irish Independent, 03.11.2008
"We have been here before, and as sure as night follows day, we will be here again. The difference this time around is that the credit crunch has exacerbated the speed and depth of decline, and transactional activity cannot improve until such time as liquidity improves - something that is out of our hands and a problem to which there is no quick-fix solution." Marie Hunt, Director of Research at CBRE, Sunday Business Post, 02.11.2008
"We’ve had very few actual redundancies - what we have done is moved people from new homes into the valuation areas. There’s no doubt we’ve moved people around. But in terms of numbers, where we’ve been forced to let people go, there’s been very few." Angus Potterton, Managing Director of Savills, Sunday Business Post, 02.11.2008
"It has to be encouraging. But the issue for the housing market is supply. There is too much supply." Frank O'Dwyer, Irish Association of Investment Managers on the prospects for big mortgage rate cuts, Sunday Tribune, 02.11.2008
"Mortgage finance has really tightened for investors. Banks are more willing to lend to first-time buyers, up to 92pc of the price. But they are more strict about income and the type of income involved -- whether it includes things like bonuses and commissions." Geoff Tucker, Economist at Hooke & MacDonald, Irish Independent, 01.11.2008
Friday, October 31, 2008
Quotes of the Week
Week starting 27.10.2008
"I believe when the recovery comes it will come quickly and will take many by surprise and will be similar to what we experienced in the last four recessions; property values will jump 10% to 15% and will then level out to grow at a far more modest rate for the subsequent years." Marcus Magnier, Head of Residential, Colliers Jackson-Stops, 30.10.2008
"We have seen collateral fall up to as much than 80pc. So the Irish market, to a certain extent, has basically lost contact with any bottom in some areas and some aspects." Peter Straarup, the chief executive of National Irish Bank's parent Danske Bank, Irish Independent, 30.10.2008
"Once things stabilise internationally and confidence returns locally, the market should get back on track, but it will be a much healthier and more structured market than heretofore. Every storm has an ending." Ken MacDonald, Hooke & MacDonald, 29.10.2008
"The economy, people having more employment, income and confidence, a perception that you needed to own your own home, the fact that more people came here to work; we had to deal with rental demand etc, so we had to build a lot of units." Annette Hughes of economic consultants DKM, on the factors that contributed to over development, Irish Independent, 28.10.2008
"There is little surprise in these figures which continue the pattern of recent months. Looking ahead, we expect this pattern to continue for some time as both consumer confidence and the economic outlook for the year ahead remain weak." Niall O’Grady, General Manager Business Strategy, permanent tsb, on the latest house price index, 27.10.2008
"The banks tend to appoint receivers on a Friday and that doesn’t give the developers much time to put together the required independent accounts over the weekend if they want to try for an examinership." Anonymous insolvency expert, Sunday Business Post, 26.10.2008
"Due to the low vacancy rate and the fact that over 80 per cent of the demand for office is focused on the city centre, only marginal falls in rental value may be seen there in the near-term, while there is more of a risk for suburban offices to see significant rental value reductions," James Mulhall, director of office agency at CBRE, Sunday Business Post, 26.10.2008
"The fear is that when one creditor takes a legal action, it will lead to a flood of similar claims by creditors who fear being left out if the developer goes under." Neil Callanan, Sunday Tribune, 26.10.2008
"I believe when the recovery comes it will come quickly and will take many by surprise and will be similar to what we experienced in the last four recessions; property values will jump 10% to 15% and will then level out to grow at a far more modest rate for the subsequent years." Marcus Magnier, Head of Residential, Colliers Jackson-Stops, 30.10.2008
"We have seen collateral fall up to as much than 80pc. So the Irish market, to a certain extent, has basically lost contact with any bottom in some areas and some aspects." Peter Straarup, the chief executive of National Irish Bank's parent Danske Bank, Irish Independent, 30.10.2008
"Once things stabilise internationally and confidence returns locally, the market should get back on track, but it will be a much healthier and more structured market than heretofore. Every storm has an ending." Ken MacDonald, Hooke & MacDonald, 29.10.2008
"The economy, people having more employment, income and confidence, a perception that you needed to own your own home, the fact that more people came here to work; we had to deal with rental demand etc, so we had to build a lot of units." Annette Hughes of economic consultants DKM, on the factors that contributed to over development, Irish Independent, 28.10.2008
"There is little surprise in these figures which continue the pattern of recent months. Looking ahead, we expect this pattern to continue for some time as both consumer confidence and the economic outlook for the year ahead remain weak." Niall O’Grady, General Manager Business Strategy, permanent tsb, on the latest house price index, 27.10.2008
"The banks tend to appoint receivers on a Friday and that doesn’t give the developers much time to put together the required independent accounts over the weekend if they want to try for an examinership." Anonymous insolvency expert, Sunday Business Post, 26.10.2008
"Due to the low vacancy rate and the fact that over 80 per cent of the demand for office is focused on the city centre, only marginal falls in rental value may be seen there in the near-term, while there is more of a risk for suburban offices to see significant rental value reductions," James Mulhall, director of office agency at CBRE, Sunday Business Post, 26.10.2008
"The fear is that when one creditor takes a legal action, it will lead to a flood of similar claims by creditors who fear being left out if the developer goes under." Neil Callanan, Sunday Tribune, 26.10.2008
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Friday, October 24, 2008
Quotes of the Week
Week starting 20.10.2008
"I would say that over half the developers in Northern Ireland are waiting for a call (from the bank)" Brendan Cunnane, Construction and Property Group, on Taggart Holding's demise, The Irish Times, 24.10.2008
"Very reluctantly over the last number of months we've seen some very good people leave us through redundancy." Sherry FitzGerald chairman Mark FitzGerald, The Irish Times, 23.10.2008
"With the market in the doldrums, questions are being raised on why more detailed information on this sector is still not readily available to the market. How much is a house worth and who sets the price?" Pat Igoe, Solicitor, The Irish Times, 23.10.2008
"The property business has been cyclical since Adam was a boy. You have to expect ups and downs. But the up always comes." Ray Grehan, Glenkerrin Homes, Irish Independent, 22.10.2008
"There is now a widespread belief that the valuations of the properties which are held as security by the Irish banks are not realistic and do not reflect conditions in the property market." Bill Nowlan, Chartered Surveyor, The Irish Times, 22.10.2008
"The fact is that most first-time buyers don't need incentivising. All the available evidence suggests that they're holding off buying now because they're waiting on prices to level off." Brenda McNally, Sunday Tribune, 19.10.2008
"The overhang of housing stock is expected to take until at least the first half of 2010 to clear." Killian Jones, an analyst at Merrion Stockbrokers, Irish Independent, 18.10.2008
"I would say that over half the developers in Northern Ireland are waiting for a call (from the bank)" Brendan Cunnane, Construction and Property Group, on Taggart Holding's demise, The Irish Times, 24.10.2008
"Very reluctantly over the last number of months we've seen some very good people leave us through redundancy." Sherry FitzGerald chairman Mark FitzGerald, The Irish Times, 23.10.2008
"With the market in the doldrums, questions are being raised on why more detailed information on this sector is still not readily available to the market. How much is a house worth and who sets the price?" Pat Igoe, Solicitor, The Irish Times, 23.10.2008
"The property business has been cyclical since Adam was a boy. You have to expect ups and downs. But the up always comes." Ray Grehan, Glenkerrin Homes, Irish Independent, 22.10.2008
"There is now a widespread belief that the valuations of the properties which are held as security by the Irish banks are not realistic and do not reflect conditions in the property market." Bill Nowlan, Chartered Surveyor, The Irish Times, 22.10.2008
"The fact is that most first-time buyers don't need incentivising. All the available evidence suggests that they're holding off buying now because they're waiting on prices to level off." Brenda McNally, Sunday Tribune, 19.10.2008
"The overhang of housing stock is expected to take until at least the first half of 2010 to clear." Killian Jones, an analyst at Merrion Stockbrokers, Irish Independent, 18.10.2008
Friday, October 17, 2008
Quotes of the Week
Week starting 13.10.2008
"It's a mortgage at a commercial rate, there's no incentive in it, it's there solely to address the credit crunch and it seems like there is a lot of people in that category" Junior Housing Minister Michael Finneran, on the Home Choice Loan scheme, Irish Independent, 17.10.2008
"The pullback on tracker mortgages is having a significant impact on the choice of mortgages available. This is also likely to have a significant negative impact on borrowing as lenders are likely to use standard variable rates as a significant tool to control their own costs," Frank Conway of Irish Mortgage Corporation, Irish Independent, 16.10.2008
"The increase in the rate of mortgage interest relief is a positive measure for first time buyers. In essence a first time buyer couple can reduce the cost of their monthly mortgage by up to €416 which when combined with the more competitive mortgage rates in the market is a very positive result and will enhance affordability for first time buyers in the market place." Marian Finnegan, Chief Economist, Sherry FitzGerald Group, 15.10.2008
"First time buyers are the lifeblood of the property market and this scheme should improve access to credit for those people currently finding it the most difficult to obtain finance from the normal lending sources, through absolutely no fault of their own." Paul Murgatroyd, Economist, Douglas Newman Good, on government measures to help first time buyers, 15.10.2008
"By and large, Budget 2009 reflects this way of thinking and while the measures introduced offer some relief to first-time buyers and include a long overdue cut in stamp duty on commercial property transactions, the overall impact on the property market will be minimal." Geoff Tucker, Hooke & MacDonald, 15.10.2008
"We'll have it . . . though it is no big deal. The 9 per cent rate was a negative factor and people went to extraordinary lengths to mitigate it, something which was in nobody's interests, least of all the exchequer." John Mulcahy, Managing Director of Jones Lang La Salle, on the cut in commercial stamp duty, The Irish Times, 15.10.2008
"The impact won't be immediate, but it's an important move,....What you really need though is confidence and also an acceptance amongst investors that commercial property values have fallen." Peter Stapleton, Managing Director of Lisney Estate Agents, on the cut in commercial stamp duty, Irish Independent, 15.10.2008
"It's like a bomb has gone off and it'll be six months before you know who's dead because everybody's bleeding." Banking source on Irish banks summoning a number of leading developers into meetings to discuss their debt situations, Sunday Tribune, 12.10.2008
"At the time, as he pointed out, the building industry employed a quarter of a million people and made up one-fifth of the economy. One might not want to "disrupt" it, but it was imperative to begin shrinking it." Brendan Keenan on Brian Cowen's Budget 2005 speech, Sunday Independent, 12.10.2008
"If the property markets are allowed to fall even further below their long-run equilibrium level, the worst fears about the economy's and the banking system's exposure to property will be realised." Hank Fogarty, Construction Industry Federation president, Sunday Independent, 12.10.2008
"The taxpayer is bailing out developers who overvalued their property portfolios. It is yet another example of how, like banks, developers never seem to suffer the consequences of their acts." Johanna Tuffy, Labour Party TD on the Revenue provision entitling property developers to refunds on their tax payments, Sunday Independent, 12.10.2008
"It's a mortgage at a commercial rate, there's no incentive in it, it's there solely to address the credit crunch and it seems like there is a lot of people in that category" Junior Housing Minister Michael Finneran, on the Home Choice Loan scheme, Irish Independent, 17.10.2008
"The pullback on tracker mortgages is having a significant impact on the choice of mortgages available. This is also likely to have a significant negative impact on borrowing as lenders are likely to use standard variable rates as a significant tool to control their own costs," Frank Conway of Irish Mortgage Corporation, Irish Independent, 16.10.2008
"The increase in the rate of mortgage interest relief is a positive measure for first time buyers. In essence a first time buyer couple can reduce the cost of their monthly mortgage by up to €416 which when combined with the more competitive mortgage rates in the market is a very positive result and will enhance affordability for first time buyers in the market place." Marian Finnegan, Chief Economist, Sherry FitzGerald Group, 15.10.2008
"First time buyers are the lifeblood of the property market and this scheme should improve access to credit for those people currently finding it the most difficult to obtain finance from the normal lending sources, through absolutely no fault of their own." Paul Murgatroyd, Economist, Douglas Newman Good, on government measures to help first time buyers, 15.10.2008
"By and large, Budget 2009 reflects this way of thinking and while the measures introduced offer some relief to first-time buyers and include a long overdue cut in stamp duty on commercial property transactions, the overall impact on the property market will be minimal." Geoff Tucker, Hooke & MacDonald, 15.10.2008
"We'll have it . . . though it is no big deal. The 9 per cent rate was a negative factor and people went to extraordinary lengths to mitigate it, something which was in nobody's interests, least of all the exchequer." John Mulcahy, Managing Director of Jones Lang La Salle, on the cut in commercial stamp duty, The Irish Times, 15.10.2008
"The impact won't be immediate, but it's an important move,....What you really need though is confidence and also an acceptance amongst investors that commercial property values have fallen." Peter Stapleton, Managing Director of Lisney Estate Agents, on the cut in commercial stamp duty, Irish Independent, 15.10.2008
"It's like a bomb has gone off and it'll be six months before you know who's dead because everybody's bleeding." Banking source on Irish banks summoning a number of leading developers into meetings to discuss their debt situations, Sunday Tribune, 12.10.2008
"At the time, as he pointed out, the building industry employed a quarter of a million people and made up one-fifth of the economy. One might not want to "disrupt" it, but it was imperative to begin shrinking it." Brendan Keenan on Brian Cowen's Budget 2005 speech, Sunday Independent, 12.10.2008
"If the property markets are allowed to fall even further below their long-run equilibrium level, the worst fears about the economy's and the banking system's exposure to property will be realised." Hank Fogarty, Construction Industry Federation president, Sunday Independent, 12.10.2008
"The taxpayer is bailing out developers who overvalued their property portfolios. It is yet another example of how, like banks, developers never seem to suffer the consequences of their acts." Johanna Tuffy, Labour Party TD on the Revenue provision entitling property developers to refunds on their tax payments, Sunday Independent, 12.10.2008
Friday, October 10, 2008
Quotes of the Week
Week starting 06.10.2008
"The harsh dose of reality from the global credit crunch may be hard to stomach, but it was long overdue. And we will emerge the better for it at the end of this particular tunnel." Con Power, Irish Independent, 10.10.2008
"Despite the reasonably strong showing from the most recent statistics on planning permissions, I expect completions in Dublin to fall in 2009 based on the trends in new home starts." Geoff Tucker, economist with Hooke and MacDonald, Irish Independent, 10.10.2008
"Absolutely, it was there to be got. People were too greedy. They wanted too much. When demand slows down, the prices come down. Things have softened globally but we can live with that and we can still make a profit. I'm looking at the long term . . . This will build out over the next five years." David Agar, The Irish Times, 10.10.2008
"The banks were all afraid of losing market share, they clearly contributed to the situation by wanting to do that." Rory O'Donnell chairman, O'Donnell Sweeney Eversheds, on blaming the banks for the implosion of Ireland's property market, Irish Independent, 09.10.2008
"The first sign of recovery from the economic situation that faces us today will be six months after property prices stabilise." Ivan Yates, Chairman of Celtic Bookmakers and a former senior Fine Gael minister, The Irish Times, 09.10.2008
"Hindsight is, of course, a wonderful thing. Now that we're looking back on the past 10 years, you'd have to wonder how we didn't see the bust coming." Anne Dooley, Director of Winthrop Group, O2 WM Businesswoman of the Year, Irish Independent, 08.10.2008
"I propose that, for a specific nominated and non-extendable period of time, and with the objective of getting this massive oversupply sold, purchasers should be permitted to reclaim a significant portion (75 per cent in my view) of the VAT on their new home." Ronan O'Driscoll, Savills Hamilton Osborne King, on the budget containing measures to boost the property market, The Irish Times, 06.10.2008
"Payments have slowed. We're getting paid; nobody's not paying us, they're just taking longer to pay us. You've just got to manage your cash carefully. It has an effect obviously... Cash is absolutely king at the moment to everybody." Guy Hollis, Managing Director CBRE, Sunday Tribune, 05.10.2008
"There'll have to be a serious write-down, there's no two ways around it. It's the elephant in the room. When the auditors go in, all hell is going to break loose. I think there will be carnage." Anonymous, on bankers and property valuations, Sunday Tribune, 05.10.2008
"Irish banks are owed €110bn by the property and construction sector. It accounts for €60 of every €100 that residents have on deposit. As 28% of all borrowings, it is significantly greater than the 25% construction proportion of bank lending in Japan when the banks crashed there in 1989." Justine McCarthy, Sunday Tribune, 05.10.2008
"The harsh dose of reality from the global credit crunch may be hard to stomach, but it was long overdue. And we will emerge the better for it at the end of this particular tunnel." Con Power, Irish Independent, 10.10.2008
"Despite the reasonably strong showing from the most recent statistics on planning permissions, I expect completions in Dublin to fall in 2009 based on the trends in new home starts." Geoff Tucker, economist with Hooke and MacDonald, Irish Independent, 10.10.2008
"Absolutely, it was there to be got. People were too greedy. They wanted too much. When demand slows down, the prices come down. Things have softened globally but we can live with that and we can still make a profit. I'm looking at the long term . . . This will build out over the next five years." David Agar, The Irish Times, 10.10.2008
"The banks were all afraid of losing market share, they clearly contributed to the situation by wanting to do that." Rory O'Donnell chairman, O'Donnell Sweeney Eversheds, on blaming the banks for the implosion of Ireland's property market, Irish Independent, 09.10.2008
"The first sign of recovery from the economic situation that faces us today will be six months after property prices stabilise." Ivan Yates, Chairman of Celtic Bookmakers and a former senior Fine Gael minister, The Irish Times, 09.10.2008
"Hindsight is, of course, a wonderful thing. Now that we're looking back on the past 10 years, you'd have to wonder how we didn't see the bust coming." Anne Dooley, Director of Winthrop Group, O2 WM Businesswoman of the Year, Irish Independent, 08.10.2008
"I propose that, for a specific nominated and non-extendable period of time, and with the objective of getting this massive oversupply sold, purchasers should be permitted to reclaim a significant portion (75 per cent in my view) of the VAT on their new home." Ronan O'Driscoll, Savills Hamilton Osborne King, on the budget containing measures to boost the property market, The Irish Times, 06.10.2008
"Payments have slowed. We're getting paid; nobody's not paying us, they're just taking longer to pay us. You've just got to manage your cash carefully. It has an effect obviously... Cash is absolutely king at the moment to everybody." Guy Hollis, Managing Director CBRE, Sunday Tribune, 05.10.2008
"There'll have to be a serious write-down, there's no two ways around it. It's the elephant in the room. When the auditors go in, all hell is going to break loose. I think there will be carnage." Anonymous, on bankers and property valuations, Sunday Tribune, 05.10.2008
"Irish banks are owed €110bn by the property and construction sector. It accounts for €60 of every €100 that residents have on deposit. As 28% of all borrowings, it is significantly greater than the 25% construction proportion of bank lending in Japan when the banks crashed there in 1989." Justine McCarthy, Sunday Tribune, 05.10.2008
Friday, October 3, 2008
Quotes of the Week
Week starting 29.09.08.
"The price decline originated in the Dublin market during the summer months of 2006 however it was almost twelve months later that the price reductions truly spread to the rest of the country. All areas of the country are now enduring significant price falls with the upper end of the market most affected to date." Marian Finnegan, Chief Economist, Sherry FitzGerald Group, 02.10.2008
"The dearth of transactions relative to recent years is evidence of the lack of demand for investment properties in a market where bank funding has effectively dried up and where buyers remain cautious." CBRE investment expert Sean O'Brien, Irish Independent, 01.10.2008
"Of the €12bn invested in property by Irish investors last year, €10bn was invested abroad. The Government's priority should be to keep that money at home." Martin Whelan of the Construction Industry Federation on commercial property, Irish Independent, 01.10.2008
"The amount of capital being made available in the current market is being strangled by the financial institutions who are refusing to lend to developers to finish out existing development or to purchasers who which to purchase units." Ger O' Rourke, Chief Executive Chieftain Group, Irish Independent, 01.10.2008
"At the end of 2007, the real prices of secondhand houses had returned to levels that may be explained by the fundamentals, while those of new houses were still overpriced by about 7 per cent in real terms." European Commission staff report, The Irish Times, 01.10.2008
"There is activity in the property market, but it’s at the lower end. As you move up the price scale, things get much quieter." John O’Sullivan, Lisney, Sunday Business Post, 28.09.2008
"Sovereign wealth funds will become one of the most significant investors in the world’s commercial property markets over the next few years. We believe that some of these funds might consider investing in Ireland, but not while the rate of stamp duty is at 9 per cent." Marie Hunt, director of research at CBRE, Sunday Business Post, 28.09.2008
"The price decline originated in the Dublin market during the summer months of 2006 however it was almost twelve months later that the price reductions truly spread to the rest of the country. All areas of the country are now enduring significant price falls with the upper end of the market most affected to date." Marian Finnegan, Chief Economist, Sherry FitzGerald Group, 02.10.2008
"The dearth of transactions relative to recent years is evidence of the lack of demand for investment properties in a market where bank funding has effectively dried up and where buyers remain cautious." CBRE investment expert Sean O'Brien, Irish Independent, 01.10.2008
"Of the €12bn invested in property by Irish investors last year, €10bn was invested abroad. The Government's priority should be to keep that money at home." Martin Whelan of the Construction Industry Federation on commercial property, Irish Independent, 01.10.2008
"The amount of capital being made available in the current market is being strangled by the financial institutions who are refusing to lend to developers to finish out existing development or to purchasers who which to purchase units." Ger O' Rourke, Chief Executive Chieftain Group, Irish Independent, 01.10.2008
"At the end of 2007, the real prices of secondhand houses had returned to levels that may be explained by the fundamentals, while those of new houses were still overpriced by about 7 per cent in real terms." European Commission staff report, The Irish Times, 01.10.2008
"There is activity in the property market, but it’s at the lower end. As you move up the price scale, things get much quieter." John O’Sullivan, Lisney, Sunday Business Post, 28.09.2008
"Sovereign wealth funds will become one of the most significant investors in the world’s commercial property markets over the next few years. We believe that some of these funds might consider investing in Ireland, but not while the rate of stamp duty is at 9 per cent." Marie Hunt, director of research at CBRE, Sunday Business Post, 28.09.2008
Monday, September 29, 2008
How bad is this going to get?
Could anyone ever have foreseen such a series of headlines 18 months ago?
Friday, September 26, 2008
Quotes of the Week
Week starting 22.09.08.
"It's very plain that the Government has been caught entirely flat-footed. Their flirtation with the property boom and the bubble in the property sector has seriously damaged the capacity of the economy to cope with more difficult times." Richard Bruton, Fine Gael finance spokesman, The Irish Times, 26.09.2008
"By slightly amending existing legislation, the Government could help stimulate this sector of the housing market by providing interest free loans of up to 20% of the value of the home for five years." Alan Redmond, IPAV President, 26.09.2008
"No lifeline should be thrown to first-time buyers. If there is a package, it will only end up being a bail-out for builders and will be of no benefit to first-time buyers." Karl Deeter, Financial Adviser, Irish Independent, 26.09.2008
"You are right to be sorry that you didn't sell in early 2006 when you could have. And you are right to be resentful of your neighbour who did. And no doubt, you would give anything to swipe the smug smile off his beaming face." Isabel Morton, The Irish Times, 25.09.2008
"It's very poor, with the lower priced properties moving quicker but not in any great volume. However, there is no sign of the market bottoming out at-all, at-all." Tom O'Higgins, RE/MAX Property Choice, on Ballybrack Co Dublin, The Irish Times, 25.09.2008
"The economic situation and lack of availability of development funding has had the effect of slowing down some new office developments and requiring that they be planned more rigorously and phased into the market. This should slow down development activity and may prevent an oversupply of office accommodation." Deirdre Costello, Jones Lang LaSalle, The Irish Times, 24.09.2008
"It is a great opportunity to get into the market at the bottom of the price cycle. We have seen a lot of movement in the last two weeks as a result of reduced prices and we would take the view that this has bottomed out now." Ken MacDonald, Hooke & MacDonald, Sunday Business Post, 21.09.2008
"As a result, you are probably looking at even better value for an investor’s point of view, in terms of what is out there in the market than would certainly have been the case." Geoff Tucker, Economist with Hooke & MacDonald Commercial, Sunday Business Post, 21.09.2008
"The very low rate of decline in July was clearly an aberration from the trend over the past few months. August re-establishes that trend and it's likely to continue through the rest of this year." Permanent TSB's Niall O'Grady, Irish Independent, 20.09.2008
"It's very plain that the Government has been caught entirely flat-footed. Their flirtation with the property boom and the bubble in the property sector has seriously damaged the capacity of the economy to cope with more difficult times." Richard Bruton, Fine Gael finance spokesman, The Irish Times, 26.09.2008
"By slightly amending existing legislation, the Government could help stimulate this sector of the housing market by providing interest free loans of up to 20% of the value of the home for five years." Alan Redmond, IPAV President, 26.09.2008
"No lifeline should be thrown to first-time buyers. If there is a package, it will only end up being a bail-out for builders and will be of no benefit to first-time buyers." Karl Deeter, Financial Adviser, Irish Independent, 26.09.2008
"You are right to be sorry that you didn't sell in early 2006 when you could have. And you are right to be resentful of your neighbour who did. And no doubt, you would give anything to swipe the smug smile off his beaming face." Isabel Morton, The Irish Times, 25.09.2008
"It's very poor, with the lower priced properties moving quicker but not in any great volume. However, there is no sign of the market bottoming out at-all, at-all." Tom O'Higgins, RE/MAX Property Choice, on Ballybrack Co Dublin, The Irish Times, 25.09.2008
"The economic situation and lack of availability of development funding has had the effect of slowing down some new office developments and requiring that they be planned more rigorously and phased into the market. This should slow down development activity and may prevent an oversupply of office accommodation." Deirdre Costello, Jones Lang LaSalle, The Irish Times, 24.09.2008
"It is a great opportunity to get into the market at the bottom of the price cycle. We have seen a lot of movement in the last two weeks as a result of reduced prices and we would take the view that this has bottomed out now." Ken MacDonald, Hooke & MacDonald, Sunday Business Post, 21.09.2008
"As a result, you are probably looking at even better value for an investor’s point of view, in terms of what is out there in the market than would certainly have been the case." Geoff Tucker, Economist with Hooke & MacDonald Commercial, Sunday Business Post, 21.09.2008
"The very low rate of decline in July was clearly an aberration from the trend over the past few months. August re-establishes that trend and it's likely to continue through the rest of this year." Permanent TSB's Niall O'Grady, Irish Independent, 20.09.2008
Friday, September 19, 2008
Quotes of the Week
Week starting 15.09.08.
"Consumer confidence is shot for lots of reasons, house prices will fall further and no one in their right mind is going to buy a house in the current environment". Jim Power, Friends First economist, The Irish Times, 19.09.2008
"It has been one hell of a ride since The Irish Times launched Ireland's first property supplement 20 years ago this month. In that time the property industry has changed the face of Ireland and brought enormous wealth to a great many people." Jack Fagan, The Irish Times, 18.09.2008
"It seemed as if everyone, knew the price of their own house. For a nation so famously reticent about money matters, we were suddenly well able to tell all and sundry what our house was worth now and what we paid for it. Not that it was professionally valued or anything but because it was here in black and white in the auction results or in the asking prices." Bernice Harrison on 20 years of The Times Property Supplement, The Irish Times, 18.09.2008
“The market is extremely challenging but we have a fantastic product in a superb location right in the heart of the city – it will clearly take longer to sell than it would a year ago but we’re confident because of the uniqueness of the product we will certainly sell them.” Michael O’Flynn, O'Flynn Construction, on the 17-storey Elysian tower which opened in Cork, The Irish Times, 18.09.2008
It was "completely incongruous" and he warned against allowing "the desired financial return of any developer to be a valid planning consideration." Dermot Desmond, Businessman, on Treasury Holdings' plans to build a 35-storey, 152-metre hotel in the Docklands, Irish Independent, 17.09.2008
"The forthcoming Budget should revert to the way mortgage interest was dealt with 20 years ago in this country, whereby one was allowed full relief on interest paid on principal mortgage at marginal rate... this would force people to buy houses and would have an additional benefit in terms of social stability as opposed to having a renting culture, which is the way matters have drifted." Michael Gilmartin, head of commercial lending at IIB Bank, The Irish Times, 17.09.2008
"Of the €12 billion invested in commercial property by Irish investors last year, €10 billion was invested abroad. The Irish economy could do with a slice of that €10 billion at the moment. At the same time, foreign investors are not investing in commercial property in Ireland." Tom Parlon, Director General of the Construction Industry Federation, Sunday Business Post, 14.09.2008
"The worst that can happen is that it doesn’t sell and then you can simply try again in early 2009." Michael Grehan, Sherry FitzGerald, Sunday Business Post, 14.09.2008
"Consumer confidence is shot for lots of reasons, house prices will fall further and no one in their right mind is going to buy a house in the current environment". Jim Power, Friends First economist, The Irish Times, 19.09.2008
"It has been one hell of a ride since The Irish Times launched Ireland's first property supplement 20 years ago this month. In that time the property industry has changed the face of Ireland and brought enormous wealth to a great many people." Jack Fagan, The Irish Times, 18.09.2008
"It seemed as if everyone, knew the price of their own house. For a nation so famously reticent about money matters, we were suddenly well able to tell all and sundry what our house was worth now and what we paid for it. Not that it was professionally valued or anything but because it was here in black and white in the auction results or in the asking prices." Bernice Harrison on 20 years of The Times Property Supplement, The Irish Times, 18.09.2008
“The market is extremely challenging but we have a fantastic product in a superb location right in the heart of the city – it will clearly take longer to sell than it would a year ago but we’re confident because of the uniqueness of the product we will certainly sell them.” Michael O’Flynn, O'Flynn Construction, on the 17-storey Elysian tower which opened in Cork, The Irish Times, 18.09.2008
It was "completely incongruous" and he warned against allowing "the desired financial return of any developer to be a valid planning consideration." Dermot Desmond, Businessman, on Treasury Holdings' plans to build a 35-storey, 152-metre hotel in the Docklands, Irish Independent, 17.09.2008
"The forthcoming Budget should revert to the way mortgage interest was dealt with 20 years ago in this country, whereby one was allowed full relief on interest paid on principal mortgage at marginal rate... this would force people to buy houses and would have an additional benefit in terms of social stability as opposed to having a renting culture, which is the way matters have drifted." Michael Gilmartin, head of commercial lending at IIB Bank, The Irish Times, 17.09.2008
"Of the €12 billion invested in commercial property by Irish investors last year, €10 billion was invested abroad. The Irish economy could do with a slice of that €10 billion at the moment. At the same time, foreign investors are not investing in commercial property in Ireland." Tom Parlon, Director General of the Construction Industry Federation, Sunday Business Post, 14.09.2008
"The worst that can happen is that it doesn’t sell and then you can simply try again in early 2009." Michael Grehan, Sherry FitzGerald, Sunday Business Post, 14.09.2008
Friday, September 12, 2008
Quotes of the Week
Week starting 08.09.08.
"The housing market is still in the throes of correction and it may well be 2009 before signs of stability emerge... Yet the monthly fall in July was only 0.2pc and the annual pace of decline also slowed, this time to 9.4pc from 9.7pc. As a result, Bank of Ireland projects an 8pc fall for the full year." Bank of Ireland chief economist Dan McLaughlin, Irish Independent, 12.09.2008
"It might start with the parent saying, 'that's too much, I wouldn't pay that'. Then the surveyor will have a go and advise them to drop a bit more and finally, just as they are about to sign the contract, the solicitor might say, 'tell them you're just about to sign the contract, but you want €20,000 off'. It's heart-breaking. For the vendor that is." Steven Manek, Douglas Newman Good, The Irish Times, 11.09.2008
"For the first time ever in Ireland the majority of homes being purchased by single people are being bought by women. The trend was heading this way before prices started falling but it appears to have accelerated considerably." Suzanne McGuinness of IFG Mortgages, Irish Independent, 11.09.2008
"If we get it wrong at the planning stage we're fighting a losing battle on other fronts. I think planning in some authorities is lacking coherence and consistency at national, regional and local level." John O'Connor, Chairman of An Bord Pleanala, Irish Independent, 10.09.2008
"We're probably going to Government at the worst time in the last 20 years and there's no doubt about that and that's a disadvantage for us." Brendan Kenny, Limerick Regeneration chief executive, The Irish Times, 10.09.08
"It will be a sad day for Dublin if one of its most attractive inner suburbs is destroyed in the fashion proposed here, if this is allowed to go ahead." Former PD leader Des O'Malley on developer Seán Dunne's plans for a 37-storey tower on the site of the former Jurys and Berkeley Court hotels in Ballsbridge, The Irish Times, 10.09.2008.
"The key issues facing first time buyers in the property market are: the lack of ability to obtain an appropriate level of finance and the lack of confidence in the market regarding when property prices will bottom out." Eoin Whelan, Director in Tax at BDO Simpson Xavier, Irish Independent, 09.09.2008.
“However, the other indices painted a somewhat more encouraging picture. Housing activity has to be curtailed to allow the supply overhang to be worked off and starts have, indeed, been minimal in recent months. The housing PMI index has oscillated around 25 for much of this year indicating that activity continues to decline but that the rate of decline has stopped accelerating." Pat McArdle, Chief Economist at Ulster Bank, 08.09.2008.
"Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are so large and so interwoven in our financial system that a failure of either of them would cause great turmoil in our financial markets here at home and around the globe." Hank Paulson, US treasury secretary, The Irish Times, 08.09.2008
"A four-bed period home off the South Circular Road could have cost up to €1.8 million when the market was at its height; now it’s down to €1.2 million or €1.3 million. If you are looking for a home to trade up to, somewhere that you plan to stay for a long time, that has to be seen as good value." Felicity Fox, Sunday Business Post, 07.09.2008.
"The housing market is still in the throes of correction and it may well be 2009 before signs of stability emerge... Yet the monthly fall in July was only 0.2pc and the annual pace of decline also slowed, this time to 9.4pc from 9.7pc. As a result, Bank of Ireland projects an 8pc fall for the full year." Bank of Ireland chief economist Dan McLaughlin, Irish Independent, 12.09.2008
"It might start with the parent saying, 'that's too much, I wouldn't pay that'. Then the surveyor will have a go and advise them to drop a bit more and finally, just as they are about to sign the contract, the solicitor might say, 'tell them you're just about to sign the contract, but you want €20,000 off'. It's heart-breaking. For the vendor that is." Steven Manek, Douglas Newman Good, The Irish Times, 11.09.2008
"For the first time ever in Ireland the majority of homes being purchased by single people are being bought by women. The trend was heading this way before prices started falling but it appears to have accelerated considerably." Suzanne McGuinness of IFG Mortgages, Irish Independent, 11.09.2008
"If we get it wrong at the planning stage we're fighting a losing battle on other fronts. I think planning in some authorities is lacking coherence and consistency at national, regional and local level." John O'Connor, Chairman of An Bord Pleanala, Irish Independent, 10.09.2008
"We're probably going to Government at the worst time in the last 20 years and there's no doubt about that and that's a disadvantage for us." Brendan Kenny, Limerick Regeneration chief executive, The Irish Times, 10.09.08
"It will be a sad day for Dublin if one of its most attractive inner suburbs is destroyed in the fashion proposed here, if this is allowed to go ahead." Former PD leader Des O'Malley on developer Seán Dunne's plans for a 37-storey tower on the site of the former Jurys and Berkeley Court hotels in Ballsbridge, The Irish Times, 10.09.2008.
"The key issues facing first time buyers in the property market are: the lack of ability to obtain an appropriate level of finance and the lack of confidence in the market regarding when property prices will bottom out." Eoin Whelan, Director in Tax at BDO Simpson Xavier, Irish Independent, 09.09.2008.
“However, the other indices painted a somewhat more encouraging picture. Housing activity has to be curtailed to allow the supply overhang to be worked off and starts have, indeed, been minimal in recent months. The housing PMI index has oscillated around 25 for much of this year indicating that activity continues to decline but that the rate of decline has stopped accelerating." Pat McArdle, Chief Economist at Ulster Bank, 08.09.2008.
"Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are so large and so interwoven in our financial system that a failure of either of them would cause great turmoil in our financial markets here at home and around the globe." Hank Paulson, US treasury secretary, The Irish Times, 08.09.2008
"A four-bed period home off the South Circular Road could have cost up to €1.8 million when the market was at its height; now it’s down to €1.2 million or €1.3 million. If you are looking for a home to trade up to, somewhere that you plan to stay for a long time, that has to be seen as good value." Felicity Fox, Sunday Business Post, 07.09.2008.
Friday, September 5, 2008
Quotes of the Week
Week starting 01.09.08.
"Let's remember this about the housing market - it is a market like any other market that is going through a process of adjustment. That adjustment has to take place."
Brian Lenihan in The Irish Times, 05.09.08.
"Affordability has improved a bit, but people are always reluctant to take the plunge while they see prices falling and while there are concerns about employment and the economy generally." John Sheehan, NCB, in The Irish Times, 04.09.08.
"There are two problems with this market - lack of money and lack of confidence . . . If we can provide one, we might be able to help the other”
Ray Grehan, Glenkerrin Homes in The Irish Times, 04.09.08.
"One of the biggest problems facing first time buyers and those trying to trade up is the banks' increasingly tighter lending. This is one way the Government could help borrowers, with a 'right-to-buy' scheme of shared ownership."
Joan Burton, Irish Independent, 03.09.08.
"We are sticking with our view that prices will fall by 30pc from peak levels. Anecdotal evidence points to the view that prices have fallen significantly further than 12pc."
Dermot O’Leary, Goodbody Stockbrokers, Irish Independent 02.09.08.
"Current trends can be attributed to a range of factors including consumer expectations of further house price reductions, the uncertain outlook on the economic and interest rate fronts, as well as the increased cost of funding for lenders."
Pat Farrell, Chief Executive of IBF, Irish Times, 02.09.08 on mortgages drawdown rates.
“Client companies who experienced difficulty in recruiting suitably qualified and experienced staff during the heady days of the market have also, with the firm's blessing, taken the opportunity to recruit from within the firm.”
Savills HOK statement in relation to staff being hired by its commercial customers, Sunday Tribune, 31.08.08.
"I don't see any quick fix over the next few months, and it may even get worse next year . . . but if investors can afford to ride out the next 18 months, then there will be growth once the market comes back to some sort of normality and the banking crisis starts to ease."
Brian Leslie, Managing Director of Primafinance.ie, Sunday Tribune, 31.08.08.
"Let's remember this about the housing market - it is a market like any other market that is going through a process of adjustment. That adjustment has to take place."
Brian Lenihan in The Irish Times, 05.09.08.
"Affordability has improved a bit, but people are always reluctant to take the plunge while they see prices falling and while there are concerns about employment and the economy generally." John Sheehan, NCB, in The Irish Times, 04.09.08.
"There are two problems with this market - lack of money and lack of confidence . . . If we can provide one, we might be able to help the other”
Ray Grehan, Glenkerrin Homes in The Irish Times, 04.09.08.
"One of the biggest problems facing first time buyers and those trying to trade up is the banks' increasingly tighter lending. This is one way the Government could help borrowers, with a 'right-to-buy' scheme of shared ownership."
Joan Burton, Irish Independent, 03.09.08.
"We are sticking with our view that prices will fall by 30pc from peak levels. Anecdotal evidence points to the view that prices have fallen significantly further than 12pc."
Dermot O’Leary, Goodbody Stockbrokers, Irish Independent 02.09.08.
"Current trends can be attributed to a range of factors including consumer expectations of further house price reductions, the uncertain outlook on the economic and interest rate fronts, as well as the increased cost of funding for lenders."
Pat Farrell, Chief Executive of IBF, Irish Times, 02.09.08 on mortgages drawdown rates.
“Client companies who experienced difficulty in recruiting suitably qualified and experienced staff during the heady days of the market have also, with the firm's blessing, taken the opportunity to recruit from within the firm.”
Savills HOK statement in relation to staff being hired by its commercial customers, Sunday Tribune, 31.08.08.
"I don't see any quick fix over the next few months, and it may even get worse next year . . . but if investors can afford to ride out the next 18 months, then there will be growth once the market comes back to some sort of normality and the banking crisis starts to ease."
Brian Leslie, Managing Director of Primafinance.ie, Sunday Tribune, 31.08.08.
Thursday, September 4, 2008
Energy ratings appearing on property brochures
We're just starting to notice a few 2nd-hand properties being advertised with their energy rating. Because this will become a significant factor in the valuation of property we will of course be including it in our comparables data. It will appear in the Additional Information column for now.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
This Month's Top Headlines
What stories have you been reading. The following were the most clicked-on headlines on PropertyWeek.ie in August.
It is interesting to observe that the overwhelming sentiment of the most popular headlines are negative, which is both consistent with the current gloomy economic outlook and affirms the notion that bad news sells.
Can positivity within the property industry and media break the downward property spiral?
It is interesting to observe that the overwhelming sentiment of the most popular headlines are negative, which is both consistent with the current gloomy economic outlook and affirms the notion that bad news sells.
Can positivity within the property industry and media break the downward property spiral?
1. HOK gives blessing to firms to take its staff in cost-cutting bid
ONE of the country's leading estate agents, Savills HOK, has given its blessing to the recruitment of staff by its own commercial customers as it attempts to reduce staff numbers in the face of the property slowdown.
2. Property market in 'crisis' as homes sell at discount
THE property market is in "crisis" with homes increasingly being sold at below-market asking prices, according to estate agents and auctioneers.
3. Estate agents close under market pressure
Newer agents take the biggest hit while established companies drop salaries and diversify into rentals and commercial property.
4. House prices still have long way to fall
FAT cats certainly won't be rushing out to buy property over the next year-and-a-half.
5. What's going to happen to property in 2009
The 'Sunday Tribune' surveyed a wide range of property experts and found broad agreement: things are going to get worse.
6. Property prices set to plunge 40pc from their peak
THE housing market is going through a drastic correction at the moment which will see prices fall as much as 40pc from their peak, according to a survey of economists.
7. RE/MAX 'Super Auction' of cut-price homes to woo first-time buyers
Currently, Re/Max is planning a pilot 'Super Auction', to be held in Galway on 12 September. If this is successful, the company plans to expand the concept nationwide.
8. Builders' holidays are all over
THE BUILDERS' holidays have turned out to be more "staycation" than vacation this year. For many construction workers and tradespeople, the focus is now on surviving the months ahead.
9. Repossession bids surge by one-third
THERE has been a sharp jump in the number of cases where banks are seeking the possession of homes and businesses.
10. New station to cut city travel times
A NEW railway station offering 25 daily trains into the heart of Dublin will open today.
Monday, September 1, 2008
A pattern of price drops is establishing itself
A friend of mine put his apartment on the market some months ago. The agent said that during the boom he would have got well over €400,000 for it, but as things were he should put it on at €370,000, which he did. A few months later when no one had been to even see the property, the agent suggested dropping to €340,000 which my friend agreed to without hesitation. A few people came to view it at that price but no offers came in. My friend contacted the agent the next month and suggested a further drop to under €300,000, which the agent did happily. In the end, the apartment sold for just shy of that.
We all know this phenomenon is making a bad situation much worse. Vendors' expectations are still too high. Agents are still keen to take instructions and so are being over-optimistic about what they can achieve - overpromising at the start knowing they can then talk the price down when the vendor sees no offers coming in. Buyers are responding predictably to the signs. They see loads of price drops, and even see that nearly every property that comes on the market is now having its price brought down after a short time. So they're waiting before they even arrange a viewing. And with the number of successive price drops they're seeing on individual properties around them, they're expecting the pattern to be repeated across the board, and so a new pattern is created irrespective of how realistic the starting price was: if you haven't dropped the price on your home a couple of times at least, buyers aren't recognising value for money.
Pricing has become a nightmare for both agents and vendors. Commentators have been saying for some time now that agents need to manage vendor expectations and make sure they list their properties at realistic levels. They seem to have failed to do so for a long time and compounded that by competing with other agents for instructions on the basis of fantasy list prices rather than on actual service and sales skill. Vendors' greed is certainly a big factor too, but now even if both are curtailed, it seems you NEED to overprice at the start of the marketing in order to allow for the inevitable price drops that suggest the price is value for money.
We all know this phenomenon is making a bad situation much worse. Vendors' expectations are still too high. Agents are still keen to take instructions and so are being over-optimistic about what they can achieve - overpromising at the start knowing they can then talk the price down when the vendor sees no offers coming in. Buyers are responding predictably to the signs. They see loads of price drops, and even see that nearly every property that comes on the market is now having its price brought down after a short time. So they're waiting before they even arrange a viewing. And with the number of successive price drops they're seeing on individual properties around them, they're expecting the pattern to be repeated across the board, and so a new pattern is created irrespective of how realistic the starting price was: if you haven't dropped the price on your home a couple of times at least, buyers aren't recognising value for money.
Pricing has become a nightmare for both agents and vendors. Commentators have been saying for some time now that agents need to manage vendor expectations and make sure they list their properties at realistic levels. They seem to have failed to do so for a long time and compounded that by competing with other agents for instructions on the basis of fantasy list prices rather than on actual service and sales skill. Vendors' greed is certainly a big factor too, but now even if both are curtailed, it seems you NEED to overprice at the start of the marketing in order to allow for the inevitable price drops that suggest the price is value for money.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Quotes of the Week
- “The problem [negative equity] will be "much more sustained" this time around, because the average loan-to-value ratio is so much higher now than in the late 1980s, when lenders were far more conservative in their approach, and the correction in houses prices is so much more severe”. The Irish times, 29.08.08.
- "[negative equity is] not a nice feeling. If you ever want to experience it, go into the back yard and set €50,000 on fire and you'll have a similar emotion." Karl Deeter, The Irish Times, 29.08.08.
- “The builder’s holidays have turned out to be more "staycation" than vacation this year. For many construction workers and tradespeople, the focus is now on surviving the months ahead, according to anecdotal reports from construction workers' unions”. Irish Times, 27.08.08.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Profile Park promotion
In conjunction with Newstalk, Profile Properties is running a promotion at the moment in which you, 3 colleagues, plus partners, could take off to London in your own private jet to watch Leinster take on the Wasps in the Heineken Cup. Stay in an exclusive London hotel and enjoy dinner for 8 at one of the city's renowned restaurants!For your chance to qualify Play Profile Park's online rugby challenge, visit www.profilepark.com
Tune into Newstalk 106-108 fm throughout the competition to find out if you're one of four finalist teams. Ger and Claire will host the final showdown live on The Breakfast Show August 15th.
Friday, June 27, 2008
Quotes of the Week
"As you know, it is very difficult out there, particularly in this area, and having explored other options to keep the business going in its current guise, we have no choice now but to carry out the rationalisation." – Pat Gunne, Gunne New Homes.
"Turnaround times are much slower than they were, there is no doubt about it, and obviously, with the bigger homes, there is a smaller number of people able to buy them, so the slowdown is making it tougher. But, if serious offers come in that are in the ball park, we're not saying 'no'," - Robert Hoban, Savills Hamilton Osborne King.
"Our job in government is to continue to invest in projects that will enhance our competitiveness; to implement sustainable, sensible fiscal policies and to ensure that we retain a flexible environment. If we follow this course of action, the economy will be in a position to bounce back when the temporary negative factors fade." - Brian Lenihan, Minister for Finance.
"Everyone knows the downturn in the public finances is because government blew the finances from the boom which everybody knew would be temporary." – Dr Alan Barrett, Senior ESRI researcher.
“The combination of higher customer mortgage rates and weaker confidence in the economy is increasing uncertainty about the immediate future of the property market. This has resulted in lower demand thereby reducing transaction numbers and property prices.” - Niall O’Grady, General Manager Business Strategy, Permanent TSB.
"Within the Economic and Social Research Institute's forecasts released earlier today, an assumption was made that only 40,000 units would be completed this year. For this to happen, output would have to fall by 63 per cent in the final seven months. This seems overly aggressive to us." – Dermot O’Leary, Goodbody Stockbrokers.
“Residential applications have come to a halt. We have had very few applications for that this year." - Paul Maloney, chief executive, Dublin Docklands Development Authority (DDDA).
"Turnaround times are much slower than they were, there is no doubt about it, and obviously, with the bigger homes, there is a smaller number of people able to buy them, so the slowdown is making it tougher. But, if serious offers come in that are in the ball park, we're not saying 'no'," - Robert Hoban, Savills Hamilton Osborne King.
"Our job in government is to continue to invest in projects that will enhance our competitiveness; to implement sustainable, sensible fiscal policies and to ensure that we retain a flexible environment. If we follow this course of action, the economy will be in a position to bounce back when the temporary negative factors fade." - Brian Lenihan, Minister for Finance.
"Everyone knows the downturn in the public finances is because government blew the finances from the boom which everybody knew would be temporary." – Dr Alan Barrett, Senior ESRI researcher.
“The combination of higher customer mortgage rates and weaker confidence in the economy is increasing uncertainty about the immediate future of the property market. This has resulted in lower demand thereby reducing transaction numbers and property prices.” - Niall O’Grady, General Manager Business Strategy, Permanent TSB.
"Within the Economic and Social Research Institute's forecasts released earlier today, an assumption was made that only 40,000 units would be completed this year. For this to happen, output would have to fall by 63 per cent in the final seven months. This seems overly aggressive to us." – Dermot O’Leary, Goodbody Stockbrokers.
“Residential applications have come to a halt. We have had very few applications for that this year." - Paul Maloney, chief executive, Dublin Docklands Development Authority (DDDA).
Friday, June 20, 2008
Quotes of the Week
‘‘Now is a brilliant time to make a shed load of money” - William Newsom, Head of Commercial Valuations, Savills.
“We have seen nothing to suggest that a change in legislation would be in the public interest. We will make our view known to the Minister for Justice if asked but, at the end of the day, it is a government decision.” - Gary Davis, deputy Data Protection Commissioner.
"The whole area of commercial service charges has been a potential source of dispute between landlords and tenants, owners and occupiers, for many years." - David O'Brien, past chairman of the Irish Property and Facility Management Association (IPFMA).
“Indeed, given the large overhang of property on the market, likelihood of an ECB rate hike, weakening economic and labour market conditions and tightening of credit conditions especially in the mortgage market, prices may continue to fall over the remainder of this year. It may take a price fall of close to 20% before the market finds a bottom. Even then, we would not anticipate any marked pick up in prices in 2009 given the subdued prospects for the economy next year. Thus, we do not expect any meaningful recovery in house prices until 2010.” – AIB Irish Economic Update
“A new planning scheme and masterplan for the Dublin docklands, due to be unveiled next week, is to recommend that the maximum height for new buildings at the North Lotts, Grand Canal Harbour and Grand Canal Docks should be increased from seven to 20 storeys.” – The Irish Times.
Friday, June 13, 2008
Quotes of the Week
"We maintain the view that, while housing will remain in contraction for some time, any significant worsening is unlikely.” - Pat McArdle, Chief Economist, Ulster Bank.
“We continue to believe that, for the market as a whole, an average price adjustment of some 15-20% from the peak is on the cards.” – AIB Housing Market Bulletin
"The correction may not be complete, but my own view is that it's possibly more complete than has been said." - Mark FitzGerald, Chief Executive, Sherry FitzGerald.
"Some 40pc of people think property prices will fall. Clearly, there has been a swing in people's mood between this year and last." - Pat Farrell, Irish Banking Federation.
‘‘Given how difficult and challenging the market already is, and the fact that by next month we will be into the summer slowdown period, I don’t see a rate rise having any great effect on prices.” – Paul Murgatroyd, Economist, Douglas Newman Good.
"On the one hand, the National Consumer Agency demands that we provide very specific information about property prices. On the other, the Data Protection Act prohibits us from releasing that information without the consent of both seller and buyer. This consent is not always available, as many private citizens do not want that information to become public." – Edward Carey, President, IAVI.
“Last September Cushman & Wakefield’s European Cities Monitor found that top executives ranked Dublin 12th out of 33 cities in terms of value for money office accommodation. This was followed two weeks ago by the Lisney Rental Indices which found that office rents had remained stable during 2007. With the global economy slowing and with Ireland’s cost competitiveness now coming into sharper focus, this is clearly good news for corporate occupiers.” - Dr. John McCartney, Head of Research, Lisney.
“The issues relating to water and drainage infrastructure are no longer an obstacle to progress and that work on transport infrastructure is well under way, as part of an urban framework plan to which we are contributing that will allow development at Sandyford to begin again.” - Garry Colligan, spokesman, Sandyford Stakeholders Forum.
Friday, June 6, 2008
The Lisbon Treaty
Despite the main political parties urging the nation to vote yes, Ireland's ratification of the Lisbon treaty looks far from a done deal. The latest polls showed those who have decided to vote no to be in the ascendancy, now at 35% - a 5% lead over those who have decided to vote yes. Crucially, 28% of voters are still undecided on the matter and theirs will be the opinion that swings it one way or the other.At the latest IPAV AGM, Alan Redmond urged all members to say yes to Lisbon but how are those in the property industry intending to vote?
Have your say in our poll to the right.
Quotes of the Week
- Figures show national house price reduction of 1.1% in April; First four months of 2008 reduction stands at 3.3%, while year on year the rate is 9.2%; New house prices fell by almost double the national rate. - Permanent TSB / ESRI House Price Index.
- "First-time buyers have been hit and hit hard by the credit crunch, and so far our Government has done nothing to help them or intervene in the market" - Joan Burton, Labour's finance spokeswoman.
- “House prices are back to 2003 levels in many parts of the country” -
- “Nobody can seriously expect that we will exceed last year’s [commercial] take-up figures” – John McCartney, Lisney.
- “Developed economies have recorded some tremendous hits over the past 12 months. In the light of these big hits, things could have been a lot worse than they are.” - Jørgen Elmeskov, acting OECD chief economist.
- “A quarter of all construction workers will lose their jobs by the end of next year” – Irish Independent.
- “On the basis of our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided at today’s meeting to leave the key ECB interest rates unchanged” – Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the ECB
- "We considered that - it is not excluded - that after having carefully examined the situation, we could decide to move our rates by a small amount in our next meeting in order to secure the solid anchoring of inflation expectations" - Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the ECB
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
Advertise commercial property the trade way
Through PropertyWeek.ie** you could let a very large portion of the entire property trade know about that property you are marketing (retail, office, industrial, investment or development land) in a very time- and cost-efficient medium.Book an ad on PropertyWeek.ie and it gets
- the top-right position of our news section for a full day
- to stay on that "homepage" for the full week
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That means it will be seen
- by 1000s of the leading property professionals in the country
- by estate agents, property developers, valuers and mortgage underwriters
- be received in the Inboxes of the 1000s of property professionals who receive our NEWS email every m0rning
- read the details of the property
- forward the details to their client(s)
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- link through to your website brochure
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The cost of this advertising is only either €356 or €5 per "hit" (ex VAT)- whichever works out cheaper for you. Contact Raymond on 01-4100684 or business@propertyweek.ie for more information.
Friday, May 30, 2008
Quotes of the Week 30/05
“Hitting the very bottom of the curve is near impossible but we know the market has taken a hit. No one knows how far that hit is going to go but it won't last forever.” – Gary McCausland, property developer.
“The housing market remains critical to prospects in Ireland on an 18-month view. At least we are confident that we are nearer the end than the beginning. Residential investment as a percentage of the economy will be down to early 1990s levels by yearend 2008, and house prices have corrected some distance. But we do not see a bottom in 2008. It is vital that new housing sales overtake house completions. That inflection point will probably be reached some time in H1 2009.” – Davy Stockbrokers.
“House prices may fall 10.7% on average (12 months over 12 months) in 2008 followed by a further decline of 7.2% in 2009.” – Davy Stockbrokers
‘‘The adversely changed circumstances of the current private housing market to that of 2005/ 2006, when the bids were submitted, along with the significant additional costs of increased apartment sizes and new energy regulations, have rendered the whole concept of using the sale of private housing units to fund social and affordable housing and community services along with a balancing site purchase figure, unsustainable in the current market, despite the best efforts of everybody involved.” - Bernard McNamara.
"It wasn't just about rebuilding a few flats, it was about social regeneration" - Peter Ward, Chairman, O'Devaney Gardens Regeneration Board.
"About 10 days ago I was asked to go and see Ciaran McNamara in Dublin City Council, and he said to me 'we don't believe these PPPs are progressing, we've spent €27m and got nothing for it and we want to go a different route" - Bernard McNamara.
”We're going to have a third- or fourth-level campus, and we commissioned a design for a general hospital, so if people came to us they'd see how much land it would take up. This is not a dormitory town, it's an economic region." - David O'Connor, Fingal county manager.
Thursday, May 29, 2008
Better late than early, when it comes to buying in our market.
Our anonymous buyer is wrapping up his house hunting activities.
Just over 6 months since I started viewing houses in earnest, I’ve made the decision to stop. It’s not what estate agents want from potential buyers at this time but I feel it’s the right choice for me to make. The way I feel about it is that not buying over the last half a year has saved me a lot of money – so why stop now?
I very nearly bought at the start of 2008, convinced that anything less than the asking price was a victory for me. Five months on, I’ve recently viewed a better house two doors down from that one I nearly bought, priced 50K lower. I’m confident that if the house in between were to come on the market at the end of this year, I’d stand to make a similar saving if I were to buy it then.
So isn’t that enough: postpone rather than pull out altogether? Wait until the end of 2008 and save 100K or approximately 20% of the value of a home? Maybe not when 2009 now looks gloomy from an economic perspective and when people have started talking about the possibility of a return to the depressing 80’s again.
This is where confidence comes in. Not many people in my shoes have confidence in the market at the moment, it seems to me, and the result is that we’re hesitating. But it could be worse than that. While many involved in the Irish property industry will point to the national media’s scaremongering as a cause of this, I must add that a lot of the industry’s own commentary has not helped. Though many responsible property professionals and economists carefully judge what they say, large sections of the industry simply churn out positive opinion and tell us all the time that “now is a good time to buy” or that “things are beginning to look better”. When these assessments are then later being revised and re-revised downwards, all such comments lose all credibility and damage buyers’ perception of the entire property market.
Additionally, the property market is feeling the effects of being touted as a good investment over the last decade. For most people in this country, including many first time buyers, purchasing property is a form of speculation, not a judgement based on lifestyle and affordability. Clearly, it would be better for the market were this not the case but after so many years of emphasising the potential value of the assets we live in, it’s impossible to shift the goalposts now.
My decision is basically an admission that I don’t think I’m capable of accurately judging when the market is going to bottom out and that I no longer trust anyone to tell me when that’s about to happen. The result is that I’ll have to judge the right time to buy from historical data such as TSB/ESRI indices which will invariably be a month or so out of date. The downside of this is that I won’t get prices when they’re at their lowest as the publication of such good news will see the rapid re-entry of people like me into the market and cause prices to spike shortly after the bottom has been reached. Still, it’s better to be a couple of months late then a year or so early … in this context.
And even then, I wonder could my nerves falter for other reasons, more about the panic of it all, the frenzy. What this country needs is a calm, stable market so that buyers such as myself can act rationally based on facts and figures. I would even go so far as to suggest a moratorium by the industry on economic predictions and that it just let people get on with the business of buying and selling their homes.
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Another wedding invite?
My heart skipped a beat on Monday when I was picking up the mail and noticed the rough artisan-style cream coloured envelope that can only mean one thing - another wedding invitation.
To my interest (and relief), the envelope actually contained an elaborate invitation to attend the opening of Chesterfield at Cross Avenue - a new development from Avenue Homes, a subsidiary of The Naus Group, with HTMOR as the selling agent.
The invitation has a lone, real leaf affixed on the cover - one suspects from the gardens of Chesterfield themselves. It invites me to come and experience "life in the gardens of Chesterfield"- not to a mere new homes launch but a "garden party event".
With the location in Blackrock it's reasonable to expect an element of style to the campaign, but this is another example of just how far developers and their agents are prepared to go to get the attention of the house buying public. When business is slow, marketing needs to work twice as hard, as is evidenced also by the Chesterfield website which is currently putting the following proposal: "You know what you want from Blackrock living, so why not tell us?"
Newlyn's new approach to area information
Newlyn's brochures and marketing are always something of a departure, but the Tyrrells Brook brochure is very dramatically so in that it is not just an elaborate design feature that makes it stand out, but fundamental content.All property brochures have sections about the local area and the amenities that might attract buyers to it, but they are usually quite stale, sometimes even just lists of shops, gyms etc.
For their Tyrrells Brook brochure, Newlyn approached a number of local people and with their permission photographed them in their place of work or at home and spoke to them about their thoughts on living and/or working in Edenderry.
The first six spreads of the brochure (after the opening landscape photograph) are given over to the portraits and words of the local people - including a teacher, a publican, a rugby player. The quality of the presentation is top-notch.
The effect is to give you a great sense of the place and a much more realistic one, not quite warts and all, but as close to it as a piece of marketing is ever going to go. It has the feel of the Seasame Street song, "People in Your Neighbourhood", and almost makes you look forward to meeting them when you're next walking down the street.
Why did nobody think of taking this approach before?
Design Factory designed. Penhire wrote. Ken Walsh took the photographs.
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