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15% OVERVALUATION?

Just off the phone from the ESRI and a chat about this 15% overvaluation idea. expressed in their Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2007. It's based on a formula they have created to test the value of property against various other economic indicators. Although they have never run the formula before, they say they have been flagging this level of overvaluation for some time and that today's announcement is no big deal. Of course, if the adjustment to "sounder values" was sudden, it would cause problems but ESRI is forecasting a slower process - the soft landing. Phew!

The ESRI is sending us on some more background on the figure which we will pass on if we can process it.

Anyway, we weren't going to post at all today because we figured so many of our readers would be in Kilkenny. But no ... the user log suggests that people are at their desks & working hard. Meanwhile, those in Kilkenny are listening right now to the following talk

Dawn Raids & Requests for Information, Revenue Audits, Revenue Offshore, Assets Group. (Speaker Julie Burke, Tax Solicitor.)

Spooky, and not as interesting to us as some of the other talks:

Estate Agents & the Importance of being branded. (Speaker John Fanning, Chairman of McConnells. )

National Property Services Regulatory Authority – The Effect of Pending Legislation. (Speakers Tom Lynch, Director Designate of the National Property Services Regulatory Authority and Tim Dalton, Chair of the Interim Board.)

Down? No, up. Up? No, down. UP!

On the one hand, Around the Block has this to say on supply of new homes: "Will anyone believe them [the IHBA] when builders are planning to quietly close down sites where new completions are just not selling, or at least not at the rapid rate that they have become used to in recent years. It will be a while before the market is concerned about housing shortages given that there is a rake of sites in the suburbs that won't be touched for years."

On the other hand, Around the Block has this to say on recent trends: "Rents have been rising at around 10 per cent, and this is giving hope of a pick-up in sales of well located developments... Agents will be very keen to see investors re-entering the market, particularly where there's a bit of value on offer. Last weekend, for instance, Hooke & MacDonald reported almost 70 sales of apartments at Cornmill, off Clonliffe Road in Dublin 3, while newcomers to the new homes market, HT Meagher O'Reilly, clocked up a reported 65 sales at the Pierse Homes development in Clongriffen, Dublin 13. At the other end of the market, McInerney and sales agent Savills HOK were pleasantly surprised to sell no less than 10 large detached house at Druids Glen in Co Wicklow, all of them priced around €2 million. Who said the market is dead?"

So, like us all The Irish Times Property people are in two minds ... confused ... uncertain ... one minute optimistic, the next pessimistic ... about the residential market these days. On the one hand, one feels sure that all the indicators are good and there's a lot of money still to spend in the Irish economy; everyone needs a home and so on. On the other hand, one worries that maybe property has had its 15 minutes (say, 12 years) of fame and now the public has just lost interest (faith?).

Share your comments on the market with us please, especially any good news about sales you might have - it's what the people want to hear. It'd do us all the world of good.