These sites are well worth keeping up with - offering an insight into the way the online world spin the property market:
And since MyHome.ie's change of format, the Irish Property Watch is now using Daft and operating from a blog called, Trees Don't Grow to the Sky: http://www.treesdontgrowtothesky.blogspot.com/
Friday, October 5, 2007
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4 comments:
Very nice blog. I take my pitchfork to your comment about spin however, those sites you mention were set up primarily to counter the spin that (I hope you'll admit) the property industry is very good at propagating. Personally my only interest in property is as an asset class and I'll call it as I see it. Right now Irish residential property is in deep trouble and prices will go a lot lower, with commercial to follow in 2008. When I think prices recover, I hope to catch the wave - but I don't expect that for at least 3 to 5 years. As an investor I would stay well away, but keep an eye on XHB which is the US homebuilder ETF.
Is that Keith from Random Walk? Yes, lots of spin from property industry. Not sure how much effect it ever had, though. Markets are more complex than that surely; and people don't listen to everything agents & bankers say (I hope you'll admit). Human nature, in particular greed, was probably more important a factor in the property bubble than any VI spinning. Vendor expectations. We get the market we deserve, you might say. As for "countering": I really don't believe boards & anonymity are sound or effective ways of counter-spinning. These comments, including my own!, are made mostly by people who have done no research (Just look at how far off the mark the pundits at Pin were about propertyweek's Paul - just because he shares a name with another business person!) and who in the end probably have no genuine desire to get at the truth or bring about reform in the way markets are conducted. They want to sit in the virtual pub and vent. You could well be right about the property market's short-term prospects. I wouldn't have the knowledge to even make an educated guess.
I missed the comment about Paul. If it's unfair I'll ask the moderators to remove it.
I think the anonymity is a helpful way for people in the industry to say it like it is. The Pin has a good few estate agents, economists and other undesirables as contributors :) If people are upset because the tone is bearish overall, that's because it represents public opinion. If property bulls want to contribute, they're free to join in - but they need better arguments than "house prices always go up!" or they'll get laughed out of the place.
Re moderating: No need to, keith, thank you. The point is that these kinds of wild leaps of logic happen all the time, and go largely unconfronted especially when they fit in with the mood. You're right about the anonymity - it does have some benefits; but as for "public opinion" - you pulling my leg, right? Reminds me of the Joe Duffy paradox: if you try to measure public opinion, you distort it! And it's not really property bulls the Pin-like forums need, it's just some self-editing, some balance among its contributors. "Property prices soaring" should not lead to "every developer and estate agent should be put in jail", surely!
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